Is Iran on the Path to De Facto Recognition of Israel

Analyzing a Plausible Scenario After the Temporary Ceasefire

Authors: Reza Kiani Movahed & Chat GPT

Following the temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel—achieved under American military and diplomatic pressure—a pressing question has emerged: Could this halt in hostilities mark the beginning of a deeper shift in the Islamic Republic’s regional policies?
A question that is now occupying many minds:

Is it possible that Iran, without making any formal declaration, could move toward de facto recognition of Israel and begin to change its behavior?

This note outlines a realistic, step-by-step scenario in which Iran—facing both external pressure and internal crisis—gradually heads toward acknowledging Israel’s existence in practice, while maintaining its ideological stance in theory.

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 Phase One: Pressure and Promises

In the initial months, the U.S. and its allies apply calculated, limited military strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. At the same time, they send signals indicating willingness to negotiate and ease sanctions.
Iran, teetering on the edge of economic collapse, begins contemplating a strategy of “soft transition.”

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Phase Two: A Shift in Tone, Not in Position

Iran’s rhetoric about Israel shifts from “destruction” to “defending Palestinian rights.”
Symbolic slogans gradually disappear from schoolbooks and public speeches.
Simultaneously, Iran strengthens its ties with mediators such as Qatar and Oman.

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Phase Three: Informal Engagement

In a significant move, Iran and Israel begin indirect interactions—for example, to avoid military clashes in Syria or the Persian Gulf.
Iran also starts attending international forums in which Israel is present—without staging walkouts or voicing objections.

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Phase Four: De Facto Reality

Without establishing diplomatic ties or formal recognition, Iran effectively acknowledges Israel as a regional actor and participates in multilateral frameworks (security, energy, maritime) that include Israel.
Domestically, policymakers tread carefully, preserving traditional slogans to keep internal dissent at bay.

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Potential Consequences

• Economic: Partial sanctions relief, inflow of Arab investments, reduced public pressure.
• Domestic politics: Growing rift between hardliners and pragmatists.
• Axis of Resistance: Heightened strategic ambiguity for Hezbollah and Hamas.
• Regional perception: Iran begins to appear not as an absolute threat, but as a "rational actor" in the eyes of parts of the Arab world.

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Conclusion

De facto recognition of Israel would not mean peace, ideological surrender, or friendship. Rather, it would be a survival tactic for Iran’s political system in the face of overwhelming external pressure and internal crisis.
If this scenario unfolds, it should not be seen as the end of conflict—but as the beginning of a new phase in the Middle East’s grand game.