The Iran–Israel Missile Conflict Through the Lens of The Art of War by Sun Tzu

Written by ChatGPT-4

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Analysis of Israel's Missile Strikes in Light of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War

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1. Principle: “All warfare is based on deception.”

Every war is founded on deception.

Analysis:

Israel used tactical deception (such as feigned movements near unrelated borders or contradictory media messaging) to confuse Iranian military analysts and delay Iran’s response.

A limited and unpredictable strike, especially following claims that the confrontation was over, precisely fits this principle.

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2. Principle: “If the enemy is united, divide him.”

Analysis:

By increasing psychological pressure and undermining Iran’s military credibility, the objective could be to sow division among military commanders, political elites, or allied forces within the "Axis of Resistance." These attacks are designed to weaken Iran from within rather than destroy it from the outside.

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3. Principle: “Attack what the enemy protects.”

Analysis:

Israel targeted sensitive and symbolic sites (such as military bases or radar systems), which had high psychological and media impact—even if physical damage was limited.

Attacking from a location or angle Iran did not expect is one of Sun Tzu’s golden rules.

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4. Principle: “Wage quick, precise war with minimal direct engagement.”

Analysis:

Israel seeks to achieve strategic objectives through short, precise, and high-cost strikes for the opponent—without entering full-scale war.

Sun Tzu repeatedly emphasizes that war should be swift and effective, not drawn-out and attritional.

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5. Principle: “Know the enemy and know yourself.”

Analysis:

Israel clearly demonstrated deep knowledge of Iran’s vulnerabilities and response limitations—economic hardship, domestic unrest, limited capacity for large-scale retaliation, and international pressure.

This accurate knowledge has been the key to executing limited but impactful operations.

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6. Principle: “Victory is won before battle begins.”

Analysis:

Before launching attacks, Israel psychologically and diplomatically weakened Iran and gained global support—setting the stage for a pre-won war.

Sun Tzu emphasizes that a good commander wins the battle in the fields of mind, politics, and perception before it begins on the ground.

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Conclusion:

Israel’s recent strikes clearly align with Sun Tzu’s principles:

• Limited, precise, and unpredictable attacks

• Use of psychological and media deception

• Targeting symbols of power, not just infrastructure

• Deep strategic understanding of Iran’s weaknesses

As Sun Tzu says: “The battle is won in the mind and planning—not just on the battlefield.”

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Analysis of Iran’s Military Response in Light of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War

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1. Violation of the Principle of Deception and Surprise

Analysis:

Iran’s response was direct, public, and pre-announced (e.g., “True Promise Operation”).

Sun Tzu advocates for surprise, but Iran publicly declared the time and path of its attack—effectively giving Israel the opportunity for full defense.

This is a direct contradiction of the principle of deception.

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2. Violation of the Principle: Attack the Enemy’s Weakness

Analysis:

Iran mostly targeted military bases and areas Israel had long prepared to defend (e.g., Dimona or command centers).

That means it struck exactly where the enemy was ready, not where it was vulnerable.

Alternative methods like cyberwarfare, industrial sabotage, or electronic warfare might have been more effective.

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3. Violation of the Principle: Win Before the War Begins

Analysis:

Sun Tzu emphasizes achieving victory through diplomacy, intelligence, public opinion, and internal readiness before the actual battle.

But Iran lacked international public support, internal unity, and persuasive power in global institutions—meaning it began the war as a perceived loser in the “global mind.”

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4. Violation of the Principle: Flexibility and Unpredictability

Analysis:

Iran’s response was based on classic, traceable ballistic missiles.

Sun Tzu advises that attacks should be like water—flowing where there’s no resistance. Iran’s path and tools were predetermined and highly predictable.

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5. Partial Application of the Principle of Proxy Warfare and Diversified Tools

Analysis:

Over the years, Iran has built a sophisticated network of proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, PMF, Fatemiyoun, etc.),

which aligns with Sun Tzu’s idea that:

“The best victory is defeating the enemy without fighting.”

But in this particular case, Iran chose to act directly rather than through proxies—thus only partially applying this principle.

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6. Violation of the Principle of Economy in War

Analysis:

In a fragile economic state, Iran launched a direct and costly confrontation.

The strike had limited military impact but high media and economic costs.

Sun Tzu emphasizes that war must be quick, cost-effective, and results-driven, not exhausting and expensive.

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Final Summary

Sun Tzu Principle	Iran’s Action	Outcome
Military deception and surprise	Violated	Enemy fully prepared
Attack the enemy’s weakness	Violated	Attack hit strong points
Victory before war	Ignored	Lack of legitimacy/support
Flexibility and unpredictability	Ignored	Completely predictable response
Proxy warfare and diverse tools	Partially used, mostly sidelined	Incomplete use of strategic advantage
Economy in war	Ignored	High cost, low gain

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Final Conclusion:

Unlike Israel—which carefully adhered to many of Sun Tzu’s principles—Iran’s military response resembled a traditional and emotional reaction, not one based on asymmetric warfare, deception, or adaptive strategy.

If Iran seeks to be more effective in the future, it must reform its military and media doctrine in line with the strategic teachings of The Art of War.

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